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凜冬將至:能源危機(jī)令北歐進(jìn)入“戰(zhàn)時(shí)狀態(tài)”

返回列表 來(lái)源: 光明網(wǎng) 發(fā)布日期: 2022.10.20 瀏覽次數(shù):
今年以來(lái),歐洲電價(jià)和天然氣價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲。一輪接一輪的歐盟對(duì)俄制裁措施不斷發(fā)酵,“反噬”的擔(dān)憂情緒推動(dòng)著能源價(jià)格不斷飆升。根據(jù)歐洲能源交易所數(shù)據(jù),近期多個(gè)波羅的海沿岸國(guó)家明年交付的電價(jià)水平突破歷史記錄,最高達(dá)到前一年同期價(jià)格的 12倍。
芬蘭總理桑娜·馬林日前對(duì)媒體表示,當(dāng)前的能源危機(jī)前所未有,這迫使芬蘭進(jìn)入“戰(zhàn)時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)”狀況。
近日,芬蘭輸電網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)營(yíng)商FINGRID警告說(shuō),電力市場(chǎng)充滿不確定性,芬蘭人應(yīng)為即將到來(lái)的冬季可能出現(xiàn)的電力短缺和停電做好準(zhǔn)備。
赫爾辛基市將于9月底組織一場(chǎng)停電演習(xí),以測(cè)試政府和企業(yè)在重大配電中斷期間的合作,預(yù)期數(shù)日至一周。
國(guó)防部提示國(guó)民,大規(guī)模停電將立即導(dǎo)致公共交通工具、銀行、加油站和商店關(guān)閉,2-6小時(shí)后,電話和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)將無(wú)法連接,18-36小時(shí)后,室內(nèi)溫度將快速下降。
近幾個(gè)月以來(lái),芬蘭電價(jià)波動(dòng)幅度巨大,無(wú)論長(zhǎng)短期合同,大多數(shù)家庭的電費(fèi)支出增加數(shù)倍。9月8日,統(tǒng)計(jì)局專家維爾夫·魯海寧表示,根據(jù)現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)評(píng)估,急劇上漲的電價(jià)造成大約10萬(wàn)戶芬蘭家庭的支付困難。
經(jīng)濟(jì)事務(wù)部長(zhǎng)米卡·林蒂萊對(duì)媒體稱,“我們正在談?wù)摻穸黾拥臄?shù)千歐元電費(fèi),即便是中產(chǎn)家庭,到了冬天也將頗為難熬。”9月10日,林蒂萊說(shuō),“一股冷風(fēng)吹來(lái)”,需要盡快采取措施穩(wěn)定電力市場(chǎng),節(jié)電和實(shí)施價(jià)格上限是最好的應(yīng)急手段。
中央商會(huì)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家尤卡·阿佩爾奎斯特對(duì)記者表示,能源成本價(jià)格大幅飆升還導(dǎo)致食品價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲,未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景異常黯淡。
9月7日,芬蘭獨(dú)立宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢公司GnS Economics首席執(zhí)行官兼首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家托馬斯·馬林撰文稱,歐洲的情況比許多人了解的要糟糕得多,由于戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和制裁等原因?qū)е碌哪茉次C(jī)及歐元貶值等情況的惡化速度非??欤瑲W洲銀行業(yè)處于危機(jī)邊緣,歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)處于崩潰邊緣,歐洲人可能只有幾周最多幾個(gè)月時(shí)間來(lái)采取預(yù)防措施。
根據(jù)芬蘭財(cái)政部最新提交的2023年財(cái)政預(yù)算計(jì)劃,政府將通過(guò)降低電力增值稅、為有孩子家庭提供可自由支配補(bǔ)貼等一攬子支持,幫助芬蘭民眾渡過(guò)困境。
9月初,芬蘭政府還公布了主題為“降低一度”的全國(guó)節(jié)能運(yùn)動(dòng)計(jì)劃,而上一次類似運(yùn)動(dòng)是在20世紀(jì)的70年代石油危機(jī)時(shí)期。
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9月8日,丹麥政府宣布了應(yīng)對(duì)能源危機(jī)的三項(xiàng)措施,包括向丹麥電力公司提供1000億丹麥克朗的國(guó)家擔(dān)保,要求公共建筑場(chǎng)合的溫度控制在19攝氏度,呼吁丹麥人節(jié)省能源。
為幫助受能源危機(jī)沖擊影響較大的家庭,此前丹麥政府已向40多萬(wàn)戶主要使用天然氣和電熱取暖系統(tǒng)的低收入家庭補(bǔ)貼6000丹麥克朗,總計(jì)達(dá)到24億丹麥克朗。
瑞典綠黨發(fā)言人批評(píng)現(xiàn)政府稱,在能源價(jià)格高昂的情況下,很震驚政府不準(zhǔn)備為此多做努力,這是對(duì)需要可承受能源的民眾的背叛。 根據(jù)報(bào)告,瑞典被認(rèn)為是在波羅的海周邊國(guó)家中開(kāi)發(fā)海上風(fēng)電最具潛力的國(guó)家,但在瑞典政府承諾的海上風(fēng)能擴(kuò)容計(jì)劃僅從目前的0.2吉瓦提高到0.7吉瓦,于當(dāng)下的能源危機(jī)而言,無(wú)異于杯水車薪。
9月8日,瑞典電網(wǎng)宣布,為緩解南部非常緊張的電力供應(yīng),公司已向政府提交大規(guī)模開(kāi)發(fā)海上風(fēng)電的申請(qǐng),強(qiáng)烈希望政府盡快批準(zhǔn)。
幾十年來(lái),核能一直是瑞典電力供應(yīng)的主要支柱。2016年瑞典議會(huì)通過(guò)了到2040年實(shí)現(xiàn)100%可再生能源發(fā)電的發(fā)展計(jì)劃,明確將核電排除在外。當(dāng)下這場(chǎng)能源危機(jī)將促使瑞典各黨派考慮是否需要更多的能源選擇。
瑞典于9月11日舉行的新一屆議會(huì)選舉競(jìng)爭(zhēng)很激烈,最終右翼政黨組成的反對(duì)黨陣營(yíng)以微弱優(yōu)勢(shì)獲得多數(shù)選票支持,支持現(xiàn)任政府的黨派陣營(yíng)在選舉中失利。瑞典首相安德松14日承認(rèn)議會(huì)選舉失利并宣布辭職。
瑞典能源發(fā)展路徑未來(lái)如何調(diào)整?這一橫亙?cè)谌藗冃念^的問(wèn)題,將隨著凜冬將至而愈發(fā)顯得迫切。

Electricity and gas prices have continued to rise in Europe this year.  One after another round of EU sanctions against Russia continue to ferment, the "backlash" of the fear of driving energy prices soaring.  Several Baltic states have recently hit record levels of electricity prices for next year, reaching as much as 12 times the price of the same period a year ago, according to the European Energy Exchange.  

The unprecedented energy crisis is forcing Finland into a "war economy", Prime Minister Sana Marin told the media.  

Finns should prepare for possible power shortages and blackouts in the coming winter amid uncertainty in the electricity market, Finnish transmission network operator FINGRID warned.  

The city of Helsinki is organising a power outage exercise at the end of September to test government and business co-operation during major power distribution disruptions, expected to last from a few days to a week.  

The ministry warned the nation that a massive power outage would immediately lead to the closure of public transport, banks, gas stations and shops, telephone and Internet connections would be unavailable after 2-6 hours, and indoor temperatures would drop rapidly after 18-36 hours.  

Electricity prices in Finland have fluctuated wildly in recent months, with most households paying several times as much for their electricity, regardless of long-term or short-term contracts.   On September 8th Wilf Ruhenen, an expert at the statistics office, said that, based on available data, sharply rising electricity prices had caused payment difficulties for about 100,000 Finnish households.  

"We are talking about thousands of euros more in electricity bills this winter, which will be difficult even for middle class families," Economic Affairs Minister Mika Linthile told the press.   On September 10th Mr Lintier said that "a cold wind is blowing" and that measures needed to be taken quickly to stabilise the electricity market, with saving electricity and imposing price caps as the best contingency measures.  

Yucca Appelquist, chief economist of the Central Chamber of Commerce, told reporters that the economic outlook for the future is particularly bleak as food prices continue to rise due to the sharp rise in energy costs.  

On September 7, Finland independent macroeconomic advisers GnS Economics, chief executive and chief economist Thomas marin, said the situation in Europe are far worse than many people know, because of the war and sanctions and other causes lead to energy crisis and the deterioration of the euro, and so on and so forth very fast, European Banks on the verge of crisis,   With the European economy on the brink of collapse, Europeans may have only weeks, if not months, to take precautions.  

According to the finance Ministry's latest budget plan for 2023, the government will help Finns through a package of support, including a reduction in VAT on electricity and a discretionary subsidy for families with children.  

In early September, the Finnish government announced plans for a national energy conservation campaign under the theme of "one degree reduction," the last such campaign was during the oil shocks of the 1970s.  

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On September 8, the Danish government announced three measures to deal with the energy crisis, including a DKR 100 billion state guarantee for Danish power companies, a requirement that public buildings be kept at 19 degrees Celsius and a call for Danes to save energy.  

To help households most affected by the energy crisis, the Danish government has already subsidized more than 400,000 low-income households, who mainly use gas and electric heating systems, by DKR 6,000, amounting to DKR 2.4 billion.  

A spokesman for Sweden's Green Party criticized the government, saying it was shocked that it was not prepared to do more when energy prices were high. It was a betrayal of people who needed affordable energy.   According to the report, Sweden is considered the country with the greatest potential for offshore wind power in the Baltic countries, but the government's commitment to increase its offshore wind capacity from the current 0.2 gigawatts to 0.7 gigawatts is a drop in the ocean given the current energy crisis.  

Sweden's power grid announced on September 8th that it had submitted an application for large-scale offshore wind development to the government to ease the tight power supply in the south, and was keen to get approval soon.  

Nuclear power has been the mainstay of Sweden's electricity supply for decades.  In 2016, the Swedish parliament passed a development plan to achieve 100 percent renewable energy generation by 2040, explicitly excluding nuclear power.  The current energy crisis will prompt Sweden's political parties to consider whether more energy options are needed.  

Sweden held a closely fought election for a new parliament on September 11, ending with a narrow majority for the opposition bloc of right-wing parties and a defeat for the bloc supporting the incumbent government.   Swedish Prime Minister Anders Andersson conceded defeat in parliamentary elections and announced his resignation Wednesday.  

How to adjust Sweden's energy development path in the future?  It is a question that will become more pressing as winter approaches. 


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