光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)是中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)“雙碳”目標(biāo)的能源轉(zhuǎn)型戰(zhàn)略關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)。過(guò)去,光伏市場(chǎng)主要在“五大六小”發(fā)電集團(tuán)持有并主導(dǎo)的集中式大電站開(kāi)發(fā)與農(nóng)村戶用光伏電站建設(shè)。
2022年工商業(yè)光伏新增裝機(jī)并網(wǎng)量從2021年的8GW爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)至2022年的25GW (若考慮12月疫情放開(kāi)導(dǎo)致并網(wǎng)高峰期停工,實(shí)際市場(chǎng)潛力接近30GW),主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素包括電價(jià)成本提升、能耗雙控影響、業(yè)主裝機(jī)意識(shí)增強(qiáng)和三方資本入局。當(dāng)前工商業(yè)光伏的主要場(chǎng)景在經(jīng)營(yíng)持續(xù)性更穩(wěn)定、資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低的大型工商業(yè)。
展望未來(lái),小微工商業(yè)有望在2-3年內(nèi)突破拐點(diǎn)、成為市場(chǎng)的新增長(zhǎng)引擎;而中長(zhǎng)期市場(chǎng)需求將結(jié)構(gòu)性向光伏建筑一體化 (BIPV)轉(zhuǎn)變,驅(qū)動(dòng)行業(yè)價(jià)值與利潤(rùn)水平長(zhǎng)足提升
工商業(yè)光伏電站市場(chǎng)的參與方主要包括業(yè)主方、開(kāi)發(fā)方、持有方、工程方四類 (如圖表2),各自承擔(dān)不同角色:業(yè)主方是廠房使用人和用電方(全額上網(wǎng)情況除外);開(kāi)發(fā)方起著業(yè)主、資本方、工程方之間的橋梁作用,與持有方、工程方普遍存在交集;持有方是電站資產(chǎn)實(shí)際持有單位,可獲取發(fā)電收益;工程方是光伏電站實(shí)際施工建設(shè)單位,包含純工程隊(duì)與EPC總包單位兩類。
大工商業(yè)光伏指單項(xiàng)目發(fā)電規(guī)模1MW以上的光伏電站項(xiàng)目,在發(fā)電集團(tuán)大規(guī)模入場(chǎng)持有與業(yè)主裝機(jī)意愿提升雙重推動(dòng)下,其年裝機(jī)量從2021年的6GW激增至2022年的19GW,成為2022年工商業(yè)光伏爆發(fā)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力。科爾尼認(rèn)為,大工商業(yè)光伏未來(lái)2-3年裝機(jī)量仍有增長(zhǎng)空間,中長(zhǎng)期隨著裝機(jī)趨于飽和及新建房屋BIPV滲透率提升,大工商業(yè)傳統(tǒng)光伏裝機(jī)量將逐步回落。
大工商業(yè)光伏根據(jù)電站資產(chǎn)持有方不同,可分為四大模式(如圖表3)。總體而言,“五大六小”發(fā)電集團(tuán)持有模式占據(jù)市場(chǎng)主導(dǎo)性地位,但隨著光伏經(jīng)濟(jì)性與安全性逐步經(jīng)歷市場(chǎng)考驗(yàn),未來(lái)業(yè)主自持與地方資本持有模式占比將持續(xù)上升。
1、業(yè)主自持模式:工商業(yè)主自主投資并持有電站資產(chǎn),可獲取最高的理論收益。從電站建設(shè)方來(lái)看,小部分為業(yè)主自建, 多數(shù)業(yè)主采用EPC外包模式進(jìn)行電站建設(shè)??紤]大工商業(yè)主對(duì)安全性與品質(zhì)的訴求,未來(lái)民營(yíng)品牌開(kāi)發(fā)商占比將進(jìn)一步提升。
2、發(fā)電集團(tuán)持有模式:目前發(fā)電集團(tuán)持有資產(chǎn)占大工商業(yè)整體的約70%。發(fā)電集團(tuán)可以自主開(kāi)發(fā), 或者收購(gòu)民營(yíng)品牌開(kāi)發(fā)商或拼裝商開(kāi)發(fā)的成熟項(xiàng)目。當(dāng)前發(fā)電集團(tuán)自主開(kāi)發(fā)趨勢(shì)顯著,其憑借低投資回報(bào)率紅線提供較高的電價(jià)折扣,客觀上擠壓民營(yíng)品牌商與拼裝商生存空間。
3、民營(yíng)品牌商自持模式:部分民營(yíng)品牌商選擇自持少量高收益率工商業(yè)項(xiàng)目,但由于資金規(guī)模有限,自持模式在整體市場(chǎng)占比較?。?lt;5%)。目前國(guó)家正在試點(diǎn)REITs(房地產(chǎn)信托投資基金),如若放開(kāi),未來(lái)民營(yíng)品牌商有望通過(guò)發(fā)放REITs融資持有光伏資產(chǎn),從而大幅擴(kuò)張持有規(guī)模、驅(qū)動(dòng)市場(chǎng)變革。
4、地方資本持有模式:通常由品牌商或拼裝商負(fù)責(zé)業(yè)主開(kāi)發(fā)和EPC建設(shè),并一體化打包給以城投公司、金融租賃機(jī)構(gòu)為首的地方零散資本進(jìn)行電站持有。目前光伏的經(jīng)濟(jì)回報(bào)、安全性已逐步歷經(jīng)市場(chǎng)驗(yàn)證;疊加經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境不景氣,地方資本逐步將光伏視為具有穩(wěn)定收益率的理財(cái)產(chǎn)品,未來(lái)該模式的市場(chǎng)影響力將獲得長(zhǎng)足增長(zhǎng)。
當(dāng)前大工商業(yè)市場(chǎng)開(kāi)發(fā)激烈,已步入精細(xì)化競(jìng)爭(zhēng)階段,未來(lái)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵在于把光伏作為減碳重要組成部分,圍繞各個(gè)行業(yè)形成對(duì)應(yīng)的定制化解決方案。首先需要基于行業(yè)吸引力和能力適配度對(duì)目標(biāo)行業(yè)進(jìn)行篩選:一方面,從行業(yè)整體發(fā)展趨勢(shì)、用電特征、減碳目標(biāo)、綜合能源需求、收益率等維度研判行業(yè)吸引力;另一方面,根據(jù)企業(yè)自身的方案能力、產(chǎn)品能力、服務(wù)能力等判斷最適合的目標(biāo)行業(yè)。
企業(yè)需要為目標(biāo)行業(yè)客戶提供覆蓋技術(shù)和商業(yè)兩方面的定制化解決方案。具體來(lái)說(shuō),如何根據(jù)客戶需求特點(diǎn),提供針對(duì)性的含光伏、儲(chǔ)能、融資、電力交易、咨詢等綜合性的解決方案,達(dá)到推動(dòng)企業(yè)減排、保證充分回報(bào)、保障生產(chǎn)運(yùn)營(yíng)等目標(biāo)。
單項(xiàng)目發(fā)電規(guī)模1MW以下的小微工商業(yè)市場(chǎng)受需求高度分散、資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性高的制約因素影響,尚處于發(fā)展早期階段。其下游應(yīng)用廣泛,物流園區(qū)、工業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)、散點(diǎn)工廠、商業(yè)地產(chǎn)是等均是其下游客戶
科爾尼認(rèn)為,隨著發(fā)電集團(tuán)外包民營(yíng)品牌開(kāi)發(fā)商(如陽(yáng)光新能源、天合智慧等)進(jìn)行資產(chǎn)打包開(kāi)發(fā)成為趨勢(shì),同時(shí)工商業(yè)主對(duì)安全質(zhì)量的高訴求需要通過(guò)品牌口碑、項(xiàng)目經(jīng)驗(yàn)、與上市公司資質(zhì)兜底來(lái)進(jìn)行保證,小微工商業(yè)的品牌化時(shí)代即將來(lái)臨
1、BIPV市場(chǎng)均處于早期發(fā)展階段,長(zhǎng)期存在爆發(fā)潛力
光伏建筑一體化(BIPV)指將光伏產(chǎn)品集成并作為建筑組成部分,是目前光伏產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新的重點(diǎn)方向。全球BIPV市場(chǎng)均處于早期發(fā)展階段,2022年中國(guó)、美國(guó)、歐洲新增裝機(jī)量總計(jì)約為1.4GW;但預(yù)計(jì)至2030年前,BIPV有望實(shí)現(xiàn)技術(shù)突破和規(guī)?;当?,從而迎來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)性拐點(diǎn),因此長(zhǎng)期而言市場(chǎng)存在爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)潛力
BIPV在歐美市場(chǎng)主要應(yīng)用于私人及工商用戶,而在當(dāng)前中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的主要客群則是價(jià)格敏感度低、追求企業(yè)形象的大工商企業(yè)以及地標(biāo)示范性行政公共建筑(如圖表7)。目前國(guó)內(nèi)BIPV滲透率偏低,主要源于整體分布式光伏新增裝機(jī)量處于高位;未來(lái)隨著產(chǎn)品TCO 效益凸顯,工商用戶接受度增加,以及國(guó)家及區(qū)域政府出具明確的BIPV 產(chǎn)品補(bǔ)貼政策,滲透率有望進(jìn)一步提升。
2、BIPV要跳出傳統(tǒng)項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)的思路與打法
由于BIPV“光伏+建筑”的雙重屬性,目前國(guó)內(nèi)通常由光伏企業(yè)和建材企業(yè)合作開(kāi)展BIPV項(xiàng)目,其中光伏企業(yè)承擔(dān)更主要的責(zé)任:首先,光伏企業(yè)牽頭產(chǎn)品研發(fā),建材企業(yè)提供可供試驗(yàn)的建筑材料作為研發(fā)輔助,隨后光伏企業(yè)主要負(fù)責(zé)BIPV產(chǎn)品的市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷和品牌打造,雙方企業(yè)分別利用自身銷售渠道觸達(dá)終端業(yè)主,其中建材企業(yè)可通過(guò)設(shè)計(jì)院影響業(yè)主的光伏產(chǎn)品采購(gòu)選擇
隨著領(lǐng)先企業(yè)紛紛積極卡位BIPV賽道,科爾尼認(rèn)為,未來(lái)以下三方面核心能力將成為在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中脫穎而出的制勝關(guān)鍵:
其一,產(chǎn)品與技術(shù)迭代能力。BIPV目前瓶頸主要在于尚未實(shí)現(xiàn)較好經(jīng)濟(jì)性,考慮其相比傳統(tǒng)光伏產(chǎn)品存在一定技術(shù)壁壘、同質(zhì)化尚不嚴(yán)重,因此通過(guò)技術(shù)迭代率先實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)性的企業(yè)將具有巨大的領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì),乃至較長(zhǎng)的市場(chǎng)獨(dú)占期。另外作為建筑材料,通過(guò)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新提升產(chǎn)品美觀性也尤為重要,也是獲得更多利潤(rùn)的根本;
其二,市場(chǎng)銷售渠道布局能力。BIPV的市場(chǎng)拓展依賴于廣泛的渠道網(wǎng)絡(luò)以觸達(dá)更多潛在終端業(yè)主。由于BIPV產(chǎn)品具有建材屬性、需要滿足建筑的定制化需求,利用建筑企業(yè)和設(shè)計(jì)院等渠道更早切入、在設(shè)計(jì)階段盡早統(tǒng)籌考慮BIPV方案,對(duì)
BIPV 廠商開(kāi)發(fā)客戶也能夠產(chǎn)生積極影響;
其三,專業(yè)化銷售能力。傳統(tǒng)光伏需要在現(xiàn)有屋頂上進(jìn)行打孔、固定支架等二次施工,往往對(duì)廠房結(jié)構(gòu)和防水性能等造成不利影響;而B(niǎo)IPV的核心價(jià)值就在于不破壞原有建筑物的結(jié)構(gòu)和功能,具有防火、防水、美觀等多重優(yōu)勢(shì)。在BIPV尚未實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)性的情況下,更需要專業(yè)化的銷售能力來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)客戶教育,使客戶認(rèn)可和接受其核心價(jià)值主張。
Industrial and commercial photovoltaics refer to photovoltaic power generation projects deployed on the roofs and open spaces of industrial and commercial enterprises' factories and warehouses, with an installed capacity of 1MW as the boundary. Above
are large industrial and commercial photovoltaics, and below are small and micro industrial and commercial photovoltaics.
The high demand for energy in industry and commerce, as well as the large total roof area of factories, is an important scenario
for achieving the comprehensive development and utilization of photovoltaics and accelerating the transformation of green energy development. In 2022, driven by factors such as the rise in industrial electricity prices, dual control of energy consumption,
and the large-scale entry and holding of "five major and six small" power generation groups, the industrial and commercial photovoltaic market is experiencing an outbreak, accompanied by increasingly fierce market competition.
The photovoltaic industry
is a key industry in China's energy transformation strategy to achieve the "dual carbon" goal. In the past, the photovoltaic market mainly focused on the development of centralized large power stations and the construction of rural household photovoltaic
power stations held and led by the "five major and six small" power generation groups.
In 2022, the new installed capacity of industrial and commercial photovoltaics for grid connection increased explosively from 8GW in 2021 to 25GW in 2022 (if considering
the shutdown during the peak period of grid connection caused by the pandemic in December, the actual market potential is close to 30GW). The main driving factors include the increase in electricity price costs, the impact of energy consumption dual control,
the enhancement of owner installation awareness, and the entry of third-party capital. The main scenario for current industrial and commercial photovoltaics is in large industrial and commercial enterprises with more stable business continuity and lower
asset risk.
Looking ahead, small and micro businesses are expected to break through inflection points and become new growth engines in the market within 2-3 years; The medium to long-term market demand will shift structurally towards BIPV, driving
a significant increase in industry value and profit levels
The participants in the industrial and commercial photovoltaic power plant market mainly include four types: owners, developers, owners, and engineering parties, each assuming different roles:
the owner is the user of the factory building and the user of electricity (except for full grid access); The developer serves as a bridge between the owner, capital, and engineering parties, and there is a common intersection with the owner and engineering
parties; The holding party is the actual holding unit of the power station assets, which can obtain power generation income; The engineering party is the actual construction unit of the photovoltaic power station, which includes two types: pure engineering
team and EPC general contracting unit.
Large industrial and commercial photovoltaics refer to photovoltaic power plant projects with a single project power generation scale of over 1MW. Driven by the dual drive of large-scale entry and ownership
by power generation groups and increased willingness of owners to install, their annual installed capacity has surged from 6GW in 2021 to 19GW in 2022, becoming the main driving force for the outbreak of industrial and commercial photovoltaics in 2022.
Corps-Nuds believes that there is still room for growth in the installed capacity of large industrial and commercial PV in the next 2-3 years. In the medium and long term, as the installed capacity tends to be saturated and the BIPV penetration rate of
new buildings increases, the traditional PV installed capacity of large industrial and commercial PV will gradually fall back.
Da Gong Commercial Photovoltaics can be divided into four major models based on the different holders of power station
assets. Overall, the holding model of the "five major and six small" power generation groups occupies a dominant position in the market. However, as the economy and safety of photovoltaics gradually undergo market tests, the proportion of owner owned
and local capital holding models will continue to rise in the future.
1. Owners' self-sufficiency model: Industrial and commercial owners independently invest and hold power plant assets, which can obtain the highest theoretical returns. From the
perspective of the power station construction party, a small portion is self built by the owner, while most businesses
全國(guó)服務(wù)熱線
13826916188